Card Counting

The Art of Card Counting: An Explanation of a Strategy, and its Difficulty and Prevention

by Jimmy Behnke

The American Dream. The ideal that every U.S. citizen will one day achieve success.There are many ways a person can do so, most of which involve gaining wealth. Most people will tell you that the best way for a person to strike it rich is through strong will, determination, initiative, and hard work. We all tend to use these characteristics to define a true rag-to-riches success story. However, there are simpler ways to make money. Perhaps the easiest way to hit the jackpot is by gambling. For the average person, no trip to Reno is complete without a trip to a casino to gamble. With a little luck and the right cards or roll of the dice, anyone can instantly see huge returns on their investments. There are dozens of popular casino games. From roulette to slot machines to Texas Hold’Em, nearly every casino game features odds stacked against the individual player. One of if not the only game where players are able to manipulate these odds is Blackjack. By using a strategy called card counting, players attempt to keep track of which cards are still available and likely to be dealt. In this paper, I will examine how card counting works and why casinos desperately try to keep players from counting.

Before we can explain how counting cards works, we must first establish the rules of Blackjack. For a comprehensive review of the rules of the games, I recommend pagat.com/banking/blackjack. Although the rules vary slightly from casino to casino, I will explain the standard rules, while explaining the reasoning behind certain decisions. Blackjack is played with a regular 52 card deck, the jokers are not involved. However, most casinos use multiple decks not only to minimize the number of times the dealer has to reshuffle, but also to make card counting more difficult. The number of decks a casino uses varies, but very rarely is just one deck in play. The dealer is permanently employed by the casino, and anywhere from one to eight players are at the table, all playing against the dealer, not each other. Players win money by beating the dealer, not another player. The object of the game is to come as close to scoring 21 points without going over. However, “contrary to what many novices believe, the goal of blackjack is not to get the best hand possible; it is to beat the dealer’s hand” (Merzich 47). Each card has a certain value. Each number card is worth its value and suits do not matter. For example, the 4 of hearts is worth 4 points, the 6 of spades is worth 6 points, and the 6 of diamonds also has a value of 6. Every face card (jacks, queens, and aces) is worth 10 points and faces are worth either 1 or 11, depending on the hand. The best hand in Blackjack is a 10 (or face card) and an ace since this instantly gives the player 21 points. However, there are more ways for a player to reach 21. Each player (and the dealer) is initially dealt two cards, one face down so that only the player knows its value; the other card is dealt face up. After this initial deal, the player has the opportunity to do one of four moves.

The first, and probably most common, is “to hit.” Asking to be hit is not asking for a physical altercation, but simply asking the dealer to provide another card. For example, if you are dealt a 4 and a 3, it would wise to ask to be hit. 7 is simply nowhere near 21, and consequently the chances for winning the hand are very slim. By getting hit, the odds of winning can rise anywhere from slightly to astronomically. Let’s say that you are dealt a jack. You now have a 17, and although this can certainly be beat, a 17 is a much better hand, with a much better chance of winning, than a 7. Once you reach 17, it would be unwise to continue hitting since it would be easy to go over 21, or “bust.” This brings us to the second choice a player has: “staying.” Staying is about as common as hitting and simply means that you do not want to be dealt another card. The typical player would stay once he or she reached 17 as I just explained. At most casinos, the dealer can hit up to 16, but must stay at a 17 or above. You would have the option to stay if initially dealt a 4 and a 3, but it would be much wiser to stay if initially dealt, for example, a king and an 8. Another option, which is much less common is “to split.” This can only happen “when you get two starting cards of the same face value” (Pagat). For example, you

could split with a pair of sevens, but not with a seven and a five. Additionally, if dealt a pair of sevens, chose to hit and received a five, you no longer have the opportunity to split. Furthermore, if dealt a five and a seven, opted to hit and received another seven, you cannot split. A wrinkle to this rule is that face cards and tens can be split since they have equal values. The reason why most players opt to split is that by splitting their hand, they have a chance at winning more money. Without having to add to their original bet, the player now has two opportunities to beat the dealer, instead of just one.

The fourth and final option a player has is “to double down.” “If you're fairly sure that your hand will beat the dealer's, you can double your original bet” (Pagat). This high-risk, high-reward strategy can only be used in certain scenarios at some casinos. While doubling down puts the player at a danger of losing twice as much money, it also provides the chance at winning twice as much. You should only double down under extremely favorable circumstances to minimize the risk while maximizing the chances of reward. Although most casinos will let a player double down with any hand, some require a hand greater or equal to a certain value, usually 10 or 11. This value must be established before the hand starts. Like splitting, you can only double down after being dealt the initial pair of cards. Once electing to double down, the player can only be dealt one more card. According to Bill Burton, most lower-level players will tend to shy away from doubling down out of fear of losing twice as much money. But as Burton says, “if the size of your bet when you double down makes you sweat, then you are playing at table stakes higher than you should be” (Burton). Although I have hinted at various strategies Blackjack players use, in the next few paragraphs, I will actually delve into every casino’s worst enemy: the art of counting cards.

As David B. Fogel says in his journal article, “Evolving Strategies in Blackjack,” “Of all the casino games, only blackjack presents the player with an opportunity to have an advantage over the house” (Fogel 2). Unlike every other casino game, Blackjack can be beaten by intelligent and observant players. While craps, roulette, and the slot machines require no skills, Blackjack allows certain people to excel. According to Fogel, most players employ some sort of strategy, all of which fall under one of two categories, basic or counting. Any Blackjack player without a strategy simply relies on chance and must consequently expect to lose. Both strategies rely on recording and remembering the cards already laid out, and waiting for the odds to turn in their favor before betting large. Basic strategy was first developed by mathematics professor Dr. Edward Thorp. Although Fogel calls this strategy “basic”, a further examination shows that there really is nothing simple about Thorp’s methods. In the appendix of Fogel’s journal article we see a complicated table explaining whether to hit, stay, or double down depending on the cards a player has been dealt and the dealer’s card. If you have a hand worth 5, 6, or 7, you should always hit regardless of the dealer’s hand. With a hand worth 8, you should usually hit, but double down if the dealer has a 5 or 6 showing. With a hand worth 9, you should double down if the dealer has a hand worth 6 or less, and hit if the dealer’s hand is worth is 7 or greater. The recommended course of action for a hand worth 10 is to double down on anything unless the dealer has a card worth 10 or an ace. With a hand worth 11, you should double down regardless

of the dealer’s hand. If you have a hand worth 12, and the dealer’s card is a 4, 5, or 6 the recommended step would be to stay; for any other situation where your hand is worth 12 you should hit. If you have a hand worth 13 through 16, you should simply stay if the dealer’s face-up card is a 6 or lower, or hit if the card is 7 or greater. If your hand is a 17 or greater, you should stay regardless.

When you are dealt an ace or a pair of the same card, however, this basic strategy becomes more complicated. With a pair of twos, you should hit if the dealer has a card worth 7-10 or an ace, and split if a 6 or less. You should split a pair of threes if the dealer has a 4-7, or hit if any other card is showing. If the dealer has a 4 or 5 showing, you should double down with a pair of fours, hitting with anything else. You should double down with a pair of fives, only hitting if the dealer has a card worth 10 or an ace showing. As I will explain later, 5 is the most significant card in the game. With a pair of sixes, you should primarily split, only hitting if the dealer’s card is an ace, or worth 8 or more. You should split any pair of sevens if the dealer’s card is 8 or less, hit if the dealer has a 9 or an ace, and stay if the dealer has a card worth 10. You should always split a pair of eights regardless of the dealer’s card. You should usually split

a pair of nines, only staying if the dealer has an ace, seven, or card worth 10. With a pair of cards worth 10 you should always stay with absolutely no exceptions. Even players who do not follow a strategy know that it is extremely rare to beat this hand. With a pair of aces you should always split with no exceptions. While all of this information may seem overwhelming, professional card counters know the strategies for each of these scenarios like the back of their actual hand, not their Blackjack hand.

Although fairly complicated, this strategy is called basic because it does not explain what to do depending on what cards are dealt after the initial hand. A successful player will alter his or her strategy based on the further distribution of hands. By only following Thorp’s basic strategy, players can expect to win only 13 cents for every $100 bet. In other words, by following the basic strategy, card counters can only expect to break even and must do more in order to expect a profit. This is where real card counting comes into effect. Unlike every other casino game, Blackjack is based entirely on dependent events. According to Dr. Doyle Andrews, “you can spin a roulette wheel a million times and never have any clue what the next roll will be.” Blackjack is the opposite. Every hand affects the next. By keeping track of which cards have already been played, counters know which cards are left to be played. Although there are several complicated variations of the counting strategy the simplest and most common version works like this: the low cards, the 2,3,4,5, and 6, are worth +1; the neutral cards are the 7,8,and 9, which do not affect the count; finally, the high cards are the 10, face cards, and aces, all of which are worth -1. For example, let’s say you are dealt a four and a nine, with the dealer showing a queen. In this case, the count would be zero since the four and the queen cancel each other out and the nine is worth zero. As you are now a well-informed disciple of Thorp, you loyally follow his strategy and hit your thirteen. However, you are dealt a ten and consequently bust. The count is now down to -1. The dealer then shows his card, a three. Since this is a low card, the count is back up to even.

Another important aspect of card counting is the difference between the “running count” and the “true count.” Let’s say you are playing at the Silver Legacy. A successful casino, they are always looking to maximize profit, and therefore, are playing with six decks. You have already played a few hands without any excitement. Since you have been counting the entire time, you know that the count is at +10. However, since multiple decks are in play, in order to obtain the “true count” you must divide the running count by the number of decks. Consequently, the count is actually very insignificant, as it is really less than 1.5. The true count leads us to one of the greatest misconceptions in gambling. Most Blackjack novices believe that by counting cards, they dramatically increase their odds of winning. Since casinos often use several decks, players only increase their chances by about one percent.

Although this slight increase is really not all that significant to players, it does have a much bigger effect on the casinos. I conducted a personal interview with Dr. Doyle Andrews, a professor of Gaming Management at the University of Nevada, Reno who worked in a corporate position at the Silver Legacy. He showed me a very basic formula based on how much money a casino loses on a card counter in an hour. At the Silver Legacy, their formula was simply the casino’s math advantage multiplied by the average wager, which in turn was multiplied by the number of decisions per hour, which was finally multiplied by the hours played in a night.

By simply swinging the advantage from a few percentage points in the Silver Legacy’s favor to a slim advantage for the player, the casino could easily lose $800, even if the player was betting modestly. Dr. Andrews explained that most card counters do bet modestly and that if counters bet above $100, the casino will immediately kick them out of the building. In the state of Nevada, casinos have the right to evict any person without reason. Although card counting is legal, casinos will withdraw any card counter they come across.

However, this certainly does not mean that counters will not return. The MIT team, a team consisting of six of the absolute brightest MIT students certainly returned to the same casinos over and over again. Easily the most famous card counters in history, the MIT team would hit up Las Vegas nearly every weekend. When I asked Dr. Andrews if they had ever come to Reno, he immediately replied “oh yes, multiple times.” Most people believe that if they can learn to count cards, they will be as successful as the MIT team. However, there are a few important reasons why the MIT team’s trips are so profitable. Firstly, they are some of the smartest students from their university, one of the smartest schools not only in America, but in the world. Second they work as a team. This idea of team counting, first popularized by Ken Uston, not only makes it harder for casinos to determine who is involved, but it makes counting easier, since multiple players are involved. The MIT team would usually have one person constantly at a table, betting the minimum while keeping the count. This person would then signal over a big bettor. Since the player who won big was only at the table for a couple of hands at most, and the person who was actually counting bet a small amount, the casinos would not expect anything. Finally, the MIT team had plenty of money to begin with. According to Dr. Andrews, you should never bet more than one percent of your total. Therefore, in order to make a $100 wager, you should already have $10,000. In general, the common person, even the most skilled counter, does not have $10,000 ready to take to a casino.

Another player who was able to beat the system was a man by the name of Don Johnson. In the span of about four months, he beat three Atlantic City casinos for about $15 million.

Shockingly, he did not employ the same tactics as the MIT team. In fact, he did not even count cards at all. By using basic strategy, Johnson was smart with his bets and instead of blindly walking into the casino to begin gambling, Johnson waited for opportune moments. As a high roller, the casino was willing to offer him discounts. By negotiating with casino management before he began playing, he “whittled the house edge down to one-fourth of 1 percent, by his figuring. In effect, he was playing a 50-50 game against the house, and with a discount, he was risking only 80 cents of every dollar he played” (Bowden). In addition to this, Johnson agreed to play with $1 million. Therefore, he could bet up to $100,000 on a single hand. As an experienced player, he only bet big on hands where he knew he had a good chance of winning. Furthermore, since he was a big bettor, the casinos wanted him to stay and although they were certainly upset when he continued winning, they never tried to kick him out of the establishment.

As someone who grew up outside of the state, I can confirm that to the rest of the United States, Nevada is known more for its casinos than anything else. One of only two states where commercial gambling is legal statewide, Nevada is a world-famous gambling destination. Although Las Vegas tends to overshadow its little brother to the north, Reno is still known across America for its gambling background. In fact this past summer as I was getting ready to move up to Reno to start college I realized that I could name more casinos in the Reno area (5) than I could cities in Nevada (4). The general public is fascinated with Blackjack because most people believe that by counting cards, they will be able to replicate the success of the MIT team and Don Johnson and beat the casinos. Unfortunately, they are wrong.

According to Dr. Andrews, the most successful people in the card counting business are not prosperous from playing Blackjack, but rather from writing about it. He told me of a man named Kenny Uston, a Blackjack strategist from the 1970s, the same man who popularized team counting. While on his way to San Francisco to gain publicity for his new book on Blackjack, he stopped at Harrah’s to play a few hands. Despite being one of the leading experts on the subject, he actually made more money the next day in San Francisco at a book convention than he did counting cards in Reno. Between the extremely restrictive actions casinos take, the difficulty it takes to keep the count, and the fact that although the odds may be in your favor, there is still a chance that you will be dealt the wrong card, it is simply easier to tell people that counting cards will make a profit than it is to make a profit by counting cards and escaping the casino to tell people about it. When people actually do make massive amounts of money, the automatic response is to tell the world. The MIT team’s adventures were turned into a New York Times bestseller, Bringing Down the House, and a Hollywood movie, 21. However, not only were the majority of the book’s details incorrect (the movie’s even more so), nobody else has been able to replicate their success. Ironically, although in every card counting success story the casinos lose, these stories have benefitted the gambling industry in the long run.

Most people believe that by reading a book or two on the subject, they are automatically experts. This notion is utterly ridiculous. Saying that anyone who has read about card counting can expect to win millions, is roughly equivalent to saying that anyone who can throw a football can expect to become an NFL quarterback. Don Johnson won by bending the rules. The MIT team won simply because they were smarter than everyone else. Casino security may not be as smart as MIT’s brightest but they are not stupid. They are more concerned with their own success than with feel-good stories of customers making profits. Behind the scenes, there are cameras everywhere. In addition to the cameras, there is always someone paying attention, counting with the players. Furthermore, they will exchange their most updated information with every other casino in town. After a few successful hands, every casino in Reno will be looking for you, ready to kick you out.

Simply put, even if you can get the odds of a game into your favor, the casino still has the advantage. There is a common saying in Blackjack, “the House always wins.” The house refers to the dealer, or the casino. Even with the rise of card counting, this is still true. I began researching card counting hoping to find multiple stories of card counters with great success. Everyone loves an underdog story, and every player to enter a casino is an underdog. Although some people get rich from counting cards, most of the success still comes from the casinos. The House, almost always, wins.

Works Cited

Andrews, Doyle. Personal Interview. 19 November 2014.

"Blackjack (21)." Rules of Card Games: Blackjack. N.p., n.d. Web. 14 Nov. 2014.

Bowden, Mark. "The Man Who Broke Atlantic City." Atlantic 27 Feb. 2012: n.

pag. theatlantic.com. The Atlantic. Web.

Fogel, David B. "Evolving Strategies in Blackjack".

Mezrich, Ben. Bringing down the House: The inside Story of Six MIT Students Who Took Vegas for Millions. New York: Free, 2002.

Print.

Russon, Gabrielle, and Mark Belko. "Local Casinos Use Countless Methods to Discourage CardCounters." Pittsburgh Post-Gazette 10

June 2012: n. pag. Post-gazette.com. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Web. 14 Nov. 2014.